SAN ANGELO, TX — Here are our five best games to watch in Week 11 in the Concho Valley and West Texas:
San Angelo Central (5-4) at Odessa Permian (9-0)
A Central-Permian matchup in the final week of the regular season had us dreaming of a district-title clash. Unfortunately, Permian has already clinched the title, while Central is locked into the No. 4 seed. But this is still Angry Orange vs. Mojo, and it’s still a game worth watching with some big storylines.
First and foremost for Bobcats fans is Central running back Zey Johnson’s pursuit of the school’s single-season rushing record. The Central junior has 1,634 yards and 21 touchdowns, leaving him just 68 yards shy of breaking Daven Manning’s record of 1,701 yards set in 2016. Johnson already broke the single-game rushing record with 353 yards earlier this season against Belton. Permian’s defense is allowing only 16.9 points per game, so it will be interesting to see if they can slow down Johnson. His lowest total so far this year was 82 yards against Mansfield Lake Ridge in Week 2.
Another big question is can Central’s defense contain Permian’s offense? The Panthers are averaging 41.7 points per game, and their perfect start to the season has them ranked No. 25 in the state in Class 6A. The Bobcats would love to spoil Permian’s undefeated season, which would also be a huge boost for Central heading into the playoffs. Permian has a a balanced attack, led by quarterback Kayden Vickers, who has thrown for 1,887 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has completed 68% of his passes. The Panthers have rushed for 1,795 yards, led by Cayden Taylor with 721 yards and 13 TDs.
If Johnson can break the record at the historic Ratliff Stadium — and Central can keep this game close — it would feel like a moral victory for the Bobcats. An outright win seems like a little too much to ask for.
The pick: Odessa Permian 38, San Angelo Central 28
Ingram Moore (7-2) at Wall (8-1)
The Wall Hawks will get one more test before they embark on the 3A Division I playoffs when they host Ingram Moore. The Warriors have been a strong program, as evidenced by their 7-2 record this year and a pair of playoff wins last year. They’ll also have motivation on their side with the knowledge they could force a three-way tie for the district title with an upset over Wall.
Ingram Moore is coming off a 28-21 loss last week to Early, a team that gave Wall plenty of trouble a week earlier before the Hawks pulled away late for a 34-17 win. Wall led 20-17 midway through the fourth quarter. Ingram Moore’s only other loss was 55-34 against state power Mason. The Warriors have one of the most dangerous players Wall will see this season in wide receiver Jason Stewart, who has racked up 822 yards and 11 TDs on 36 catches.
Wall is coming off a bye week, which the Hawks needed as they’ve battled key injuries, including to wide receiver/kick returner Jager Thompson. If he’s able to return for the playoff run, that could be a game changer. Wall hasn’t lost a district game since 2021, and this is not the time to start. Though the Hawks have already clinched a share of the title, a loss could open the door for them to lose the No. 1 seed going into the playoffs. For that to happen, Ingram Moore would have to win by 12 or more. We don’t see it getting that far, but you never know.
The pick: Wall 35, Ingram Moore 24
Ozona (4-5) at Ballinger (7-2)
How quickly things can change for football teams this time of year. The Ballinger Bearcats were one play away from winning the district title last week at Sonora, but they were unable to stop the Broncos’ two-point conversion and fell 42-41 in overtime — though Ballinger deserves a ton of credit for its 21-point comeback to force OT. Now Ballinger needs a win at home over Ozona to hang onto the No. 2 seed. If the Bearcats lose, they’ll fall to the No. 3 seed and could even end up on the wrong end of a three-way tiebreaker to slip to the No. 4 seed if Forsan beats Sonora.
Ultimately, Ballinger controls its own destiny and can finish as the district runner-up if it takes care of business against Ozona, and that would give the Bearcats a more favorable first-round playoff draw. Everything suggests Ballinger is the favorite in this matchup, but Ozona does have the experience of winning a district title last year, while the Bearcats didn’t make the playoffs. This is new ground for Ballinger, though the Bearcats have already shown they can meet the moment in big games. They beat an undefeated Forsan team earlier this year, and they nearly beat Sonora last week. They’ve also shown grit with three second-half comebacks, not including last week’s late charge.
Ozona has a lot to play for this week. With a win, the Lions could potentially leave Ballinger with the No. 2 seed. With a loss, they could end up in a three-way tie with Forsan and Christoval for third place, and then their fate will be left to a coin flip. After a 1-4 start to the season, Ozona has won three of its last four games, including last week’s 34-12 win over Reagan County
With so much on the line in this game, expect both teams to play their best football of the season. This should be a fun atmosphere at Bearcat Stadium.
The pick: Ballinger 34, Ozona 26
Cross Plains (4-5) at Miles (3-5)
This is a do-or-die matchup with the fourth and final playoff spot on the line from District 7-2A Division II. The winner moves on to the playoffs, and the winner goes home. It’s as simple as that.
Miles held off Hamlin 24-23 two weeks ago to set up this game, where the Bulldogs have home-field advantage. Cross Plains had a much easier time against Hamlin in a 39-12 win, but common opponents don’t always tell the story of how a matchup will play out. Cross Plains won this matchup 38-14 last year, but Miles won the previous three meetings.
Though both of these teams have middling records, they’re in one of the more difficult 2A districts you’ll find. Goldthwaite, Stamford and Albany are all established state powers that occupy the district’s top three spots, leaving little room for anyone else to sneak into the playoffs.
Miles has talented athletes and an experienced head coach in Jayson Wilhelm, who led the Bulldogs to three straight eight-win seasons before last year’s 2-8 setback, and he should have his team ready to compete. Considering the stakes, expect a close game.
The pick: Cross Plains 27, Miles 26
Christoval (3-6) at Colorado City (4-5)
After last week’s 33-13 stunner over Forsan, the Christoval Cougars have given themselves a chance to sneak into the playoffs. They need help with wins by Ballinger against Ozona, and Sonora over Forsan, and then Christoval needs to do its part with a win at Colorado City. If all of that falls into place, Christoval will then finish in a three-way tie with Ozona and Forsan, forcing a coin flip for the district’s No. 3 and 4 seeds.
The district’s playoff spots seemed settled last week before Christoval walloped Forsan in a game the Cougars had to win by at least 17 points. Danny Alfaro had a stellar performance with 302 rushing yards to lead the way. Meanwhile, the defense had its best showing of the season.
Colorado City is out of the playoff race, but the Wolves are a dangerous sixth-place team. They’re having their best season since 2018 and have been competitive in district losses to Forsan (40-35), Ozona (28-27) and Ballinger (34-14). Colorado City, especially on its home field, will be no easy win for Christoval.
The Cougars have everything to play for, so they should come out and find a way to leave town with a win. If they do that, they’ll have to let the chips fall where they may and hope to end up on the right side of a coin flip.
The pick: Christoval 34, Forsan 30
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