AUSTIN, TX — Democratic nominee State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) is expressing optimism about his chances of becoming the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas in nearly three decades. With strong polling, record fundraising, and a divided Republican field, Talarico believes the path is open in what could be the most competitive Texas Senate race in a generation.
“I believe we are on the verge of something historic,” Talarico has signaled in recent appearances, leaning on faith-based messaging, economic populism, and crossover appeal to frustrated voters.
Talarico’s momentum comes on the heels of President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton in the contentious Republican U.S. Senate runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Trump Endorses Paxton as GOP Runoff Heats Up
On May 19, President Donald Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican U.S. Senate runoff, delivering a major boost to the challenger just one week before the May 26 election.
Trump called Paxton “a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate.” He praised Paxton’s loyalty and support for ending the Senate filibuster and the SAVE America Act, while criticizing Cornyn for being “very late” in supporting his 2024 bid and not standing firmly during tough times.
Senate Republican leaders reacted with disappointment. Majority Leader John Thune, who had urged Trump to back Cornyn, said he continues to support the incumbent: “None of us control what the president does,” while calling Cornyn a “principled conservative” and “very effective senator.” Reports from Capitol Hill described many GOP senators as livid, worried the move could complicate holding the seat in November.
Fellow Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has close ties to both candidates, has remained neutral and has not commented on the endorsement.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, speaking at a rally in Lubbock attended by State Sen. Charles Perry (who endorsed him), responded defiantly: “We’re not giving up the fight. I know who gets to choose our senators, and it’s the people of Texas. And there’s no substitute for that.” Cornyn also canceled campaign events the next day to return to Washington for a key Senate vote funding ICE and CBP.
Democratic nominee James Talarico quickly fired back: “We already know who we’re running against — the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.” He said both Cornyn and Paxton represent “broken politics that enriches wealthy donors while costs skyrocket for the rest of us,” framing the race as “top versus bottom” rather than left versus right.
West Texas District Attorney Sarah Stogner (@Sarah4Texas), a Republican, reacted bluntly on X: “I was busy in grand jury today. Apparently I missed Trump endorsing Paxton? Mark my words — Paxton v Talarico flips the senate seat blue.”
Veteran Texas political journalist Scott Braddock of the Quorum Report noted Trump’s relatively measured language, pointing out that he endorsed Paxton while still calling Cornyn “a good man.” Braddock added that Trump endorsements in Texas primaries have historically shifted voter decisions by double digits, even this close to Election Day.
The endorsement comes amid widespread frustration in the Texas GOP base. As one conservative put it: “Paxton sucks. Cornyn sucks more. We really need better, conservative candidates.” Many express exhaustion with the bitter, high-spending intraparty fight between two flawed options.
Decades of Republican Dominance — With Warning Signs
Texas has been a Republican stronghold since the late 1990s. Democrats controlled the state for roughly a century after Reconstruction, but the GOP realignment took hold in the 1990s. Republicans swept all statewide offices in 1998 and have held every major executive position, the Legislature, and both U.S. Senate seats for nearly 30 years. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994.
The closest brush came in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke nearly defeated Sen. Ted Cruz, falling short by about 215,000 votes (roughly 2.6 percentage points). O’Rourke’s campaign electrified Democrats with record fundraising, visits to all 254 counties, and massive rallies. It built a lasting volunteer network and boosted down-ballot performance, proving that energetic, retail-politics campaigning could shrink the GOP margin in Texas.
Locally, that energy appeared early. In August 2017, O’Rourke drew a standing-room-only crowd of around 180 people at Fuentes Downtown Cafe in San Angelo — a city that voted 72 percent for Donald Trump the previous year. He spent hours afterward taking selfies with supporters, including some Republicans.
After the rally, O’Rourke told a SanAngeloLIVE reporter that the key to winning Texas for a Democrat was convincing Republican voters to cross over. However, as the campaign progressed, he embraced more progressive positions on issues such as transgender rights, which some analysts say alienated the moderate and Republican-leaning voters he had hoped to attract.
Democrats have shown a slow but measurable resurgence in Texas over the past decade. The 2018 Beto wave flipped 12 Texas House seats, and two Texas Senate seats, and the Texas Third Court of Appeals. That suburban momentum continued through 2020 and 2022, even without statewide wins. Most recently, Democrats stunned observers in February 2026 by flipping a deep-red State Senate district by more than 14 points in a special election — a roughly 30-point swing. These gains, paired with record fundraising and growing enthusiasm in urban and suburban areas, have positioned the party to test Republican dominance like never before in the modern era.
Talarico’s Rise and Strong Position
An eighth-generation Texan, former middle school teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico first won his House seat in 2018. He has drawn national attention for faith-based arguments against certain conservative policies, strong debate performances, and an economic populist message aimed at working-class voters.
Talarico won the March Democratic primary and has shattered fundraising records, raising a record $27 million in Q1 2026 alone — the largest first-quarter haul ever for any U.S. Senate candidate in any state — for a total exceeding $40 million. He enters the general election with nearly $9.9 million cash on hand and broad small-dollar support.
Recent polls show Talarico performing unusually strongly for a Democrat in Texas, often leading or tied against both Republicans:
- Texas Public Opinion Research (April 17–20): Talarico 44%–Cornyn 41%; Talarico 46%–Paxton 41%.
- University of Texas / Texas Politics Project (April): Talarico ahead or competitive in both matchups, with notable Republican undecideds.
- Texas Southern University (late April): Near dead heats, with Talarico holding a strong +11 favorable rating.
Aggregates rate the general election as competitive or a Toss-Up — rare for Texas. Some analysts ask whether Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a statewide office since the GOP era began in the mid-to-late 1990s.
The Runoff: Establishment vs. Insurgent
The May 26 contest pits longtime incumbent John Cornyn against Ken Paxton. Neither reached 50% in the March 3 primary (Cornyn ~42%, Paxton ~40.5%). Early voting continues through Friday.
John Cornyn’s Background
Born in 1952, Cornyn has nearly four decades in public service: Bexar County district judge, Texas Supreme Court justice, Texas Attorney General (1999–2002), and U.S. Senator since 2002 (now in his fourth term). He served as Senate Republican Whip and chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Cornyn highlights more than 80 bills signed into law on economic growth, national security, veterans, and public safety. He has faced criticism from the right for his role in the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act after the Uvalde shooting and his support for certain foreign aid packages, such as funding Ukraine in the war against Russia.
Ken Paxton’s Background
Born in 1962, Paxton served in the Texas House and Senate before becoming Attorney General in 2015 (re-elected twice). He leads a 4,000+ employee agency and has gained national prominence through multi-state lawsuits on border security, election integrity, religious liberty, and federal overreach. He positions himself as a staunch “America First” fighter and Trump ally.
Paxton notably spearheaded the high-profile 2020 lawsuit Texas v. Pennsylvania, which alleged that changes in battleground states diluted Texas voters’ voices. The U.S. Supreme Court dismissed the case for lack of standing, but the effort significantly boosted his standing with Trump supporters.
Paxton’s 2023 Impeachment: Allegations and Acquittal
Paxton survived a high-profile 2023 impeachment. The Texas House impeached him on 20 articles, many centered on his relationship with Austin developer and donor Nate Paul. Whistleblowers alleged he used the power of the Attorney General’s office to benefit Paul — including directing state resources to punish Paul’s business competitors through criminal investigations. Additional allegations involved his personal home renovations paid for by Paul, other favors, and an extramarital affair with related cover-up efforts.
The Texas Senate acquitted Paxton on all 16 articles tried (no article received the 21 votes needed to convict). He was reinstated and called the process a politically motivated “sham.”
Critics noted potential influence on the trial: In July 2023, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who presided over the proceedings, received $3 million from a pro-Paxton PAC funded by Midland oil billionaire Tim Dunn and the Wilks family.
Nate Paul Today: Paul pleaded guilty in January 2025 to false statements to a financial institution and was sentenced to home confinement, supervised release, and a $1 million fine. His real estate empire has faced bankruptcies and foreclosures.
Paxton’s Personal Controversies
The 2023 impeachment included allegations of an extramarital affair. In July 2025, State Sen. Angela Paxton filed for divorce after 38 years of marriage, citing “biblical grounds” and adultery. The couple had separated as spouses in June 2024.
Fundraising and Cash on Hand
The GOP primary has been one of the most expensive in state history, with total ad spending exceeding $125 million.
- Cornyn: ~$26.5 million raised; Q1 ~$9 million; cash on hand ~$8.2 million.
- Paxton: ~$8–13.5 million raised; Q1 ~$2.2 million; cash on hand ~$2.6 million.
- Talarico: Over $40 million total; Q1 record $27 million; cash on hand ~$9.9 million.
Talarico has stockpiled cash while the Republicans battled each other.
Runoff Polling
Pre-endorsement surveys showed a tight race:
- University of Houston Hobby School (April 28–May 1): Paxton 48% – Cornyn 45%.
- RealClearPolling average: Paxton with a narrow edge.
Trump’s endorsement is expected to consolidate MAGA support, especially in rural West Texas.
Outlook for November
The eventual GOP nominee will face Talarico in November in what could be Texas’ most competitive Senate race in a generation. Trump downplays any Democratic threat in deep-red Texas, but polls, fundraising, and internal divisions suggest it won’t be automatic.
Texas Republicans have dominated for nearly 30 years. This cycle tests whether candidate weaknesses and voter frustration finally open the door for a Democrat riding Beto-era energy and record resources.
Early voting runs through Friday; Election Day is May 26.
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